China International Finance Securities kutshanje ingxelo ukuba ihlabathiI-Optical Transceiver Imarike kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-USD 10 yebhiliyoni ngo-2021, kunye nemarike yasekhaya ithatha ngaphezulu kwama-50 epesenti.Kwi-2022, ukuthunyelwa kwe-400GI-Optical Transceivers kwizinga elikhulu kunye nokunyuka ngokukhawuleza kumthamo we-800GI-Optical Transceivers kulindeleke, kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwimfuno yeemveliso ze-optical chip ezinesantya esiphezulu.Ukongeza, ngokutsho kuka-Omdia, indawo yentengiso yeechips ze-optical ezisetyenziswa kwi-25G nangaphezuluI-Optical TransceiverI-s imiselwe ukunyuka ukusuka kwi-USD 1.356 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-USD 4.340 yezigidigidi ngo-2025, kunye nesantya sokukhula esiqikelelwayo sonyaka se-21.40 ekhulwini.
Ukujonga ukukhula kwemfuno yeechips zamehlo ukusuka kuqikelelo lweI-Optical Transceiver ishishini.
I-LightCounting iqikelela ukuba imakethi ye-optical transceiver yehlabathi iya kukhula nge-4.34% ngo-2023, kunye nesantya sokukhula sonyaka se-11.43% ukusuka kwi-2024 ukuya kwi-2027.
Ngokwetyala le-CICC, ubungakanani bemarike yehlabathi yeetshiphusi zamehlo zonxibelelwano ngo-2021 kulindeleke ukuba zibe yi-14.67 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan.Ubungakanani bemarike ye-2.5G, 10G, 25G kunye ne-optical chips ezingaphezulu yi-1.167 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-2.748 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-10.755 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokulandelelanayo.U-Omdia uqikelela ukuba ubungakanani bemarike ngokubanzi yeetshiphusi zamehlo ezisetyenziselwa i-25G nangaphezulu kweemodyuli zamehlo ngo-2021 ziya kuba yi-1.913 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, okanye malunga ne-13 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan.
Ngokusekwe kwezi datha, kuqikelelwa ukuba unxibelelwano lwehlabathi lwemarike ye-optical chip iya kwenza i-18-20% yemarike yemodyuli ye-optical ngo-2021. Ubungakanani bemakethi ye-optical optical ehambelanayo ibalwa ngokusekelwe kwi-18% ye-low-end optical module market. kunye ne-20% yeemarike eziphezulu.
Okwangoku, uninzi lwe-transceivers optical kunye nesakhiwo semveliso evuthiweyo yamkela isakhiwo se-channel ezine se-PSM4 okanye i-CWDM4.Iichips ze-Optical ze-10G nangaphantsi zihambelana ngokumalunga ne-1G, i-10G, kunye ne-40G iimodyuli ze-optical.Ngokutsho kwedatha yesimo sezulu se-LightCounting, ukuthunyelwa kwe-1G, 10G, kunye ne-40G iimodyuli ze-optical zonxibelelwano lwedijithali ziya kuqala ukuhla ukusuka kwi-2023, okubangelwa ukuhla kobukhulu bemarike ukusuka kwi-614 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-150 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2027. Ukuthatha i-18% njengomlinganiselo, ubungakanani bemakethi ye-optical ehambelanayo kulindeleke ukuba yehle ukusuka kwi-US $ 111 yezigidi ngo-2022 ukuya kwi-US $ 27 yezigidi ngo-2027.
I-architecture yenethiwekhi yeziko ledatha idlula inkqubo ye-10G / 40G CLOS yakudala.Uninzi lweenkampani ze-Intanethi zasekhaya zisebenza kwi-architecture ye-25G / 100G CLOS, ngelixa iinkampani zaseMntla Melika zitshintshela kwi-100G / 400G CLOS ephezulu kunye ne-800G yezakhiwo zenethiwekhi.Iimodyuli ze-digital optical zesantya esiphezulu kwi-100G-800G ikakhulu zisebenzisa i-DFB kunye ne-EML chips laser, kunye ne-baud rate yi-25G, 53G, 56G.Uninzi lweemveliso zemodyuli ye-800G ekhoyo ngoku kwimarike yamkela i-8 * 100G i-architecture kwaye isebenzise ii-chips ezisibhozo ze-56G EML PAM4.
Idatha yebikezelo ye-LightCounting ibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kweemodyuli ze-optical ezisebenza kwi-25G, 100G, 400G kunye ne-800G ziya kuqhubeka zikhula ukusuka kwi-2023 ukuya kwi-2027. Ngeli xesha, ubungakanani beemarike kulindeleke ukuba bunyuke ukusuka kwi-USD 4.450 yezigidigidi ukuya kwi-5 yezigidigidi ze-USD kwi-2022. Iya kuba yi-7.269 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2027, inqanaba lokukhula elimangalisayo leminyaka emi-5 ye-10.31%.Ubungakanani bemakethi ye-optical chip ehambelana nayo kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ukusuka kwi-890 yezigidi zeedola ukuya kwi-1.453 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Wirelessukubuyisela emva Imfuno ye-10G izinzile, imfuno ye-25G ikhula
Ukusukela ngoNovemba ka-2022, isiseko se-5G saseTshayina sifikelele kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo, kunye nezikhululo ezisisiseko eziyi-2.287 yezigidi ezisasazwe kwilizwe lonke.Nangona izinga lokukhula kokwakhiwa kwesikhululo sesiseko liye lancipha, idatha ibonisa ukuba ngokuphuculwa okuqhubekayo kokungena kwe-5G kunye nokutyetyiswa kwezicelo, imfuno yokwandiswa kwe-wireless midhaul kunye ne-backhaul networks iyanda.Nangona i-global 10G kunye ne-25G ukuthunyelwa kwemodyuli ye-optical iyancipha ukusuka kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-2027, kulindeleke ukuba ubungakanani beemarike zeemodyuli ze-wireless fronthaul optical ziya kuphucula ngo-2026, xa iimodyuli ze-optical ngaphezu kwe-50G ziya kuqala ukufakwa kwiibhetshi.Iingcali zoshishino zikholelwa ukuba i-50G kunye ne-100G iimodyuli ezibonakalayo azikwazi ukuqhuba i-rebound ye-5G fronthaul market kude kube yi-2026, ngelixa i-25G nangaphezulu kwe-5G fronthaul iimodyuli ze-optical kulindeleke ukuba zizinze kwi-$ 420 yezigidi phakathi kwe-2023 kunye ne-2025. Njengoko imfuno ye-5G ye-traffic iqhubeka ukukhula, ukuthunyelwa kwe-5G phakathi kwe-haul kunye ne-10G i-transceivers optical kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ukusuka kwi-2.1 yezigidi zeeyunithi kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-3.06 yezigidi zeeyunithi kwi-2027, kunye ne-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu ye-7.68%.Imfuno yemarike ekhulayo kulindeleke ukuba izinzise i-10G kwaye ingaphantsi kwemarike yemodyuli ye-optical kwi-90 yezigidi zeedola, kwaye imarike ye-optical chip ehambelanayo iqikelelwa malunga ne-18.1 yezigidi zeedola.Kwimarike ephakathi kunye ne-backhaul, imfuno ye-25G, i-100G, kunye ne-200G iimodyuli ze-optical kulindeleke ukuba zigcine ukukhula ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-2023, kunye nobukhulu bemarike ye-25G nangaphezulu kweemodyuli ze-optical eziphakathi kunye ne-backhaul kulindeleke ukuba zikhule ukusuka kwi-US $ 103 yezigidi kwi-2022. ukuya kwi-US$171 yezigidi ngo-2027. Izinga lokukhula konyaka elihlanganisiweyo yi-10.73%.Imarike ye-optical chip ehambelana nayo kulindeleke ukuba yande ukusuka malunga nezigidi ezingama-21 zeedola ukuya kwi-34 yezigidi zeedola.
Ukufikelela ngeentambo kwi-10G imfuno yePON iyaqhubeka nokukhula
ISicwangciso seMinyaka emiHlanu saseTshayina se-14 soshishino lwe-infocomm simisela izinto ekujoliswe kuzo ezinqwenelekayo kwiziseko ezingundoqo zelizwe zedijithali.Ngeli xesha, urhulumente uceba ukuhambisa i-gigabit fiber optic network ukukhawulezisa ukwakhiwa "kwezixeko ze-gigabit" kunye nokwandisa ukugubungela amanethiwekhi e-gigabit kulo lonke ilizwe.Ekupheleni kuka-2022, iinkampani ezintathu zonxibelelwano ezisisiseko zilindele ukuba inani lilonke labasebenzisi abasisigxina bokufikelela kwibroadband ye-Intanethi bafikelele kwizigidi ezingama-590.Phakathi kwabo, izinga lokufikelela kwi-100Mbps nangaphezulu laliyi-554 yezigidi, ukwanda kwe-55.13 yezigidi kunyaka odlulileyo.Ngexesha elifanayo, inani labasebenzisi bokufikelela kunye nezinga le-1000 Mbps nangaphezulu lifikelele kwi-917.5 yezigidi, ukwanda kwe-57.16 yezigidi kunyaka odlulileyo.Nangona le nkqubela phambili, kusekho indawo yokuphucula, kunye nokungena kwababhalisi be-Gigabit kulindeleke ukuba kube yi-15.6% kuphela ekupheleni kwe-2022. Kule njongo, urhulumente ukhuthaza ukwakhiwa kweenethiwekhi ze-10G-PON kwizixeko nakwiindawo eziphambili.idolophu, igxile ekwandiseni ugutyulo.NgoDisemba 2022, inani le-10G izibuko ze-PON kunye nezakhono zenkonzo yenethiwekhi ye-Gigabit ziya kufikelela kwi-15.23 yezigidi, eziquka amakhaya angaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-500 kulo lonke ilizwe.Oku kwenza isikali senethiwekhi yegigabit yaseTshayina kunye nenqanaba lokugubungela phakathi kwezona ziphezulu kwihlabathi.Ukujonga phambili, imakethi yePON iya kuqhubeka nokuphuhlisa, kwaye iLightCounting iqikelela ukuba ukuthunyelwa kweI-PONi-transceivers optical ngaphantsi kwe-10G iya kuncipha ukusuka kwi-2022. Ngokwahlukileyo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-PON ye-10G kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ngokukhawuleza, ifikelele kwi-26.9 yezigidi zeeyunithi kwi-2022 kunye ne-73 yezigidi zeeyunithi kwi-2027, kunye ne-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu ye-22.07%.Nangona ubungakanani beemarike ze-10G iimodyuli ze-optical buya kuncipha ukusuka kwincopho yayo ngo-2022, imarike ye-optical ehambelana nayo iya kuncipha ukusuka kwi-US $ 141.4 yezigidi ukuya kwi-US $ 57 yezigidi.Ukukhangela phambili, i-25G PON kunye ne-50G ye-PON kulindeleke ukuba ifezekise ukuhanjiswa okuncinci kwi-2024, kulandelwa ukuhanjiswa okukhulu kwiminyaka elandelayo.Kuqikelelwa ukuba ubungakanani beemarike ze-25G nangaphezulu kweemodyuli ze-PON ezibonakalayo ziya kudlula i-200 yezigidi zeedola zase-US ngo-2025, kwaye imarike ye-optical chip ehambelanayo iya kufikelela kwi-40 yezigidi zeedola zase-US.Lilonke, iziseko zedijithali zaseTshayina ziya kuqhubeka zikhula kwaye ziphuhlise kwiminyaka ezayo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-22-2023