I-China International Finance Securities isandula ukubika ukuba i-I-Transceiver yokubona Imarike kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele ngaphezulu kwe-USD 10 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2021, kunye nemarike yasekhaya ebalelwa ngaphezulu kwama-50 ekhulwini. Ngo-2022, ukusasazwa kwe-400GI-Transceiver yokubonas ngomlinganiselo omkhulu kunye nokwanda ngokukhawuleza komthamo we-800GI-Transceiver yokubonakulindeleke ukuba kubekho ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwemfuno yeemveliso zeetshiphusi ze-optical ezikhawulezayo. Ukongeza, ngokutsho kwe-Omdia, indawo yemarike yeetshiphusi ze-optical ezisetyenziswa kwi-25G nangaphezulu.I-Transceiver yokubonaI-s imiselwe ukunyuka ukusuka kwi-USD 1.356 yezigidigidi ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-USD 4.340 yezigidigidi ngo-2025, kunye nezinga lokukhula eliqikelelweyo lonyaka eliyi-21.40 ekhulwini.
Ukujonga ukukhula kwemfuno yeetships ze-optical ukusuka kwingqikelelo yeI-Transceiver yokubona imboni.
I-LightCounting iqikelela ukuba imakethi yehlabathi ye-transceiver ye-optical iya kukhula nge-4.34% ngo-2023, kunye nezinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiweyo le-11.43% ukusuka ngo-2024 ukuya ku-2027.
Ngokwengxelo ye-CICC, ubungakanani bemarike yehlabathi yeetships ze-optical zonxibelelwano lwe-optical ngo-2021 kulindeleke ukuba bube yi-14.67 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan. Ubungakanani bemarike yeetships ze-optical ze-2.5G, 10G, 25G nangaphezulu yi-1.167 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-2.748 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-10.755 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokulandelelana. U-Omdia uqikelela ukuba ubungakanani bemarike iyonke yeetships ze-optical ezisetyenziselwa iimodyuli ze-optical ze-25G nangaphezulu ngo-2021 ziya kuba yi-1.913 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, okanye malunga ne-13 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan.
Ngokusekelwe kwezi datha, kuqikelelwa ukuba imakethi ye-optical chip yonxibelelwano lwehlabathi iya kubalelwa kwi-18-20% yemarike ye-optical module ngo-2021. Ubungakanani bemakethi ye-optical chip ehambelanayo bubalwa ngokusekelwe kwi-18% yemarike ye-optical module ephantsi kunye ne-20% yemarike ye-high-end.
Okwangoku, uninzi lwee-transceivers ze-optical ezinesakhiwo semveliso esivuthiweyo zisebenzisa isakhiwo se-PSM4 okanye i-CWDM4 esineetshaneli ezine. Iitships ze-optical ze-10G nangaphantsi zihambelana neemodyuli ze-optical ze-1G, 10G, kunye ne-40G. Ngokwedatha yokuqikelela ye-LightCounting, ukuthunyelwa kweemodyuli ze-optical ze-1G, 10G, kunye ne-40G zonxibelelwano lwedijithali kuza kuqala ukwehla ukususela ngo-2023, nto leyo ekhokelela ekwehleni kobukhulu bemarike ukusuka kwi-614 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2022 ukuya kwi-150 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2027. Ukuthatha i-18% njengenani, ubungakanani bemarike yeetships ze-optical ezihambelanayo kulindeleke ukuba buhle ukusuka kwi-US $111 yezigidi ngo-2022 ukuya kwi-US $27 yezigidi ngo-2027.
Uyilo lwenethiwekhi yeziko ledatha ludlula inkqubo ye-10G/40G CLOS endala. Uninzi lweenkampani ze-intanethi zasekhaya zisebenza kwi-25G/100G CLOS architecture, ngelixa iinkampani zaseMntla Melika zitshintshela kwi-100G/400G CLOS kunye ne-800G network architectures eziphucukileyo. Iimodyuli ze-digital optical ezikhawulezayo ezikuluhlu lwe-100G-800G zisebenzisa ikakhulu ii-DFB kunye ne-EML laser chips, kwaye izinga le-baud yi-25G, 53G, 56G. Uninzi lweemveliso ze-800G optical module ezikwimarike ngoku zisebenzisa i-8 * 100G architecture kwaye zisebenzisa ii-86G EML PAM4 optical chips.
Idatha ye-LightCounting yokuqikelela ibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kweemodyuli ze-optical ezisebenza kwi-25G, 100G, 400G kunye ne-800G kuya kuqhubeka nokukhula ukusuka ngo-2023 ukuya ku-2027. Ngeli xesha, ubungakanani bemarike kulindeleke ukuba bunyuke ukusuka kwi-USD 4.450 yezigidigidi ukuya kwi-USD 5 yezigidigidi ngo-2022. Kuya kuba yi-US$ 7.269 yezigidigidi ngo-2027, izinga lokukhula konyaka elimangalisayo leminyaka emi-5 eliyi-10.31%. Ubungakanani bemarike ye-optical chip efanayo kulindeleke ukuba bukhule ukusuka kwi-US$ 890 yezigidi ukuya kwi-US$ 1.453 yezigidigidi.
Okungenazingcingoukukhwela umva Imfuno ye-10G izinzile, imfuno ye-25G iyanda
Ukususela ngoNovemba ka-2022, iziseko zophuhliso ze-5G zaseTshayina zifikelele kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo, apho izikhululo zesiseko ezizizigidi ezingama-2.287 zisasazwe kuzwelonke. Nangona izinga lokukhula kokwakhiwa kwezikhululo zesiseko liye lehla, idatha ibonisa ukuba ngokuphuculwa okuqhubekayo kokungena kwe-5G kunye nokutyetyiswa kwezicelo, imfuno yokwandiswa kwenethiwekhi ye-midhaul engenazingcingo kunye ne-backhaul iyanda. Nangona ukuthunyelwa kweemodyuli ze-optical ze-10G kunye ne-25G zehlabathi kuye kwehla ukusuka ngo-2022 ukuya ku-2027, kulindeleke ukuba ubungakanani bemarike yeemodyuli ze-optical ezingenazingcingo ziya kuphucuka ngo-2026, xa iimodyuli ze-optical ezingaphezulu kwe-50G ziya kuqala ukuthunyelwa ngeebhetshi. Iingcali zoshishino zikholelwa ukuba iimodyuli ze-50G kunye ne-100G optical zisenokungaqhubeki nokubuyela umva kwimarike ye-5G fronthaul kude kube ngu-2026, ngelixa iimodyuli ze-25G nangaphezulu ze-5G fronthaul optical kulindeleke ukuba zizinze kwi-$420 yezigidi phakathi ko-2023 no-2025. Njengoko imfuno yethrafikhi ye-5G iqhubeka ikhula, ukuthunyelwa kwee-transceivers ze-5G mid-haul kunye ne-10G optical kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke ukusuka kwiiyunithi ze-2.1 yezigidi ngo-2022 ukuya kwiiyunithi ze-3.06 yezigidi ngo-2027, nge-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu ye-7.68%. Imfuno yemarike ekhulayo kulindeleke ukuba izinzise imarike ye-10G kunye ne-low optical module kwi-$90 yezigidi, kwaye imarike ye-optical chip ehambelana nayo iqikelelwa kwi-$18.1 yezigidi. Kwimarike ephakathi neye-backhaul, imfuno yeemodyuli ze-optical ze-25G, 100G, kunye ne-200G kulindeleke ukuba zigcine ukukhula okukhawulezileyo ukusukela ngo-2023, kwaye ubungakanani bemarike yeemodyuli ze-optical ze-25G nangaphezulu kulindeleke ukuba zinyuke ukusuka kwi-US$103 yezigidi ngo-2022 ukuya kwi-US$171 yezigidi ngo-2027. Izinga lokukhula konyaka elihlanganisiweyo liyi-10.73%. Imarike yeetship ze-optical ehambelana nayo kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ukusuka kwi-$21 yezigidi ukuya kwi-$34 yezigidi.
Imfuno ye-10G PON yokufikelela ngentambo iyaqhubeka nokukhula
Isicwangciso seminyaka emihlanu saseTshayina soshishino lwe-infocomm sibeka iinjongo ezibalulekileyo kwiziseko zophuhliso zedijithali zelizwe. Ngeli xesha, urhulumente uceba ukusebenzisa inethiwekhi ye-gigabit fiber optic ukukhawulezisa ukwakhiwa "kwezixeko ze-gigabit" nokwandisa ukugubungela iinethiwekhi ze-gigabit kulo lonke ilizwe. Ekupheleni kuka-2022, iinkampani ezintathu zonxibelelwano ezisisiseko zilindele ukuba inani lilonke labasebenzisi abasebenzisa i-intanethi esisigxina lifikelele kwi-590 yezigidi. Phakathi kwazo, izinga lokufikelela kwi-100Mbps nangaphezulu laliyi-554 yezigidi, ukunyuka kwe-55.13 yezigidi kunyaka ophelileyo. Kwangaxeshanye, inani labasebenzisi abasebenzisa i-intanethi abanezinga le-1000 Mbps nangaphezulu lifikelele kwi-917.5 yezigidi, ukwanda kwe-57.16 yezigidi kunyaka ophelileyo. Nangona le nkqubela phambili isekho indawo yokuphucula, njengoko kulindeleke ukuba ukungena kwababhalisi beGigabit kube yi-15.6% kuphela ekupheleni kuka-2022. Ngenxa yoku, urhulumente ukhuthaza ukwakhiwa kweenethiwekhi ze-10G-PON kwizixeko nakwiindawo ezibalulekileyo zedolophu, egxile ekwandiseni ukugubungela. NgoDisemba ka-2022, inani leezibuko ze-10G PON ezineenkonzo zenethiwekhi yeGigabit ziya kufikelela kwi-15.23 yezigidi, zigubungela amakhaya angaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-500 kulo lonke ilizwe. Oku kwenza isikali senethiwekhi ye-gigabit yaseTshayina kunye nenqanaba lokugubungela libe phakathi kwezona ziphezulu kwihlabathi liphela. Ukujonga phambili, imakethi ye-PON iya kuqhubeka nophuhliso, kwaye i-LightCounting iqikelela ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwe-I-PONIi-transceivers ze-optical ezingaphantsi kwe-10G ziya kwehla ukusuka ngo-2022. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, ukuthunyelwa kwe-10G PON kulindeleke ukuba kukhule ngokukhawuleza, kufike kwiiyunithi ezingama-26.9 ezigidi ngo-2022 kunye neeyunithi ezingama-73 ezigidi ngo-2027, kunye ne-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu ye-22.07%. Nangona ubungakanani bemarike yeemodyuli ze-optical ze-10G buza kwehla ukusuka kwincopho yayo ngo-2022, imakethi yeetshiphusi ze-optical ehambelanayo nayo iya kwehla ukusuka kwi-US $141.4 yezigidi ukuya kwi-US $57 yezigidi. Ukujonga phambili, i-25G PON kunye ne-50G PON kulindeleke ukuba zifikelele ekusetyenzisweni okuncinci ngo-2024, kulandele ukuthunyelwa okukhulu kwiminyaka elandelayo. Kuqikelelwa ukuba ubungakanani bemarike yeemodyuli ze-optical ze-PON ezingama-25G nangaphezulu ziya kudlula kwi-200 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2025, kwaye imakethi yeetshiphusi ze-optical ehambelanayo iya kufikelela kwi-40 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika. Ngokubanzi, iziseko zedijithali zaseTshayina ziya kuqhubeka zikhula kwaye ziphuhla kwiminyaka ezayo.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Matshi-22-2023